SUMMARY

Crude above $100/barrel is flowing through to jet fuel, bunker and diesel costs, which is why air, ocean and truck rates are well above last year even where underlying demand is only moderately stronger. Fuel-related surcharges are likely to remain a meaningful part of total freight cost while energy markets stay elevated.

SUMMARY

Across modes, fuel is the common thread. Crude above $100 per barrel and record diesel are lifting surcharges and operating costs in air, ocean and trucking, and shippers should be aware that these pressures may persist while Hormuz and Red Sea risks remain unresolved.

Capacity conditions differ by mode. Air cargo demand is growing faster than capacity, ocean carriers are actively managing supply through blank sailings ahead of Golden Week, and trucking capacity has loosened slightly week over week even as rates stay well above last year. Transit planning around holiday-related congestion and storm disruption in Asia is worthwhile.

SUMMARY

The supply chain environment is still defined by tightening capacity across nearly every mode rather than by demand shocks. In air and ocean, carriers are actively managing capacity through blank sailings and fleet deployment decisions, which means available space — not just price — is the variable shippers should watch most closely heading into peak season. Below, we break down some of the key data points we're tracking this peak season. 

SUMMARY

Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) fell 3.1% week-on-week in the week ending July 20, 2026, a third consecutive weekly decline led by softer outbound pricing from Asia and Europe. Even so, the index remains well above year-ago levels, and IATA's most recent monthly data showed global cargo demand growth continuing to outpace capacity growth.

Ocean Freight: Drewry's World Container Index fell 4% to $4,374 per 40ft container for the week of July 23, 2026, as Asia-Europe and Transpacific rates eased from their recent peak. Carriers have scheduled 39 blank sailings across major East-West trades over the next five weeks, and several major lines have introduced new Peak Season Surcharges.

Trucking: DAT's June 2026 data showed dry van spot rates at $3.00 per mile and flatbed rates at a record $3.69 per mile, with van spot rates topping contract rates for the first time since February 2022. The national van load-to-truck ratio eased to 10.7 for the week of July 12-18 as more capacity entered the market, even as diesel prices climbed alongside the broader crude oil rally.

SUMMARY

Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) fell 2.7% week-on-week to 2,551.00 on July 6, though it remains up 27.7% year-on-year. Corridor indices out of Frankfurt, Hong Kong, London Heathrow, and Shanghai all eased on the week while staying well above year-ago levels.

Ocean Freight: Drewry's World Container Index rose 2% to $4,639 per 40ft container on July 9, its highest level since September 2024. Transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes both climbed further amid blank sailings, tight equipment availability, and pre-tariff-deadline frontloading.

Trucking: DAT's June spot dry van rate reached $3.00 per mile, and spot rates topped contract rates for the first time since February 2022. Flatbed spot rates hit an all-time high of $3.69 per mile as carrier capacity continues to tighten.