SUMMARY

Jet fuel is more than double year-ago levels, crude oil is near $110 a barrel and volatile diesel prices mean fuel surcharges are likely to remain a significant, and fast-moving, part of transportation costs in air, ocean and trucking through the end of the year. Air cargo load factors are rising while capacity stays flat, transpacific ocean carriers are continuing blank sailings, and truck posts in North America are well below last year. On the positive side, the gradual return of container services to the Suez Canal is restoring shorter Asia–Europe routings and adding capacity, which may improve transit reliability for European trade.

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SUMMARY

Crude above $100/barrel is flowing through to jet fuel, bunker and diesel costs, which is why air, ocean and truck rates are well above last year even where underlying demand is only moderately stronger. Fuel-related surcharges are likely to remain a meaningful part of total freight cost while energy markets stay elevated.

SUMMARY

Air Freight: The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) fell 3.1% week-on-week in the week ending July 20, 2026, a third consecutive weekly decline led by softer outbound pricing from Asia and Europe. Even so, the index remains well above year-ago levels, and IATA's most recent monthly data showed global cargo demand growth continuing to outpace capacity growth.

Ocean Freight: Drewry's World Container Index fell 4% to $4,374 per 40ft container for the week of July 23, 2026, as Asia-Europe and Transpacific rates eased from their recent peak. Carriers have scheduled 39 blank sailings across major East-West trades over the next five weeks, and several major lines have introduced new Peak Season Surcharges.

Trucking: DAT's June 2026 data showed dry van spot rates at $3.00 per mile and flatbed rates at a record $3.69 per mile, with van spot rates topping contract rates for the first time since February 2022. The national van load-to-truck ratio eased to 10.7 for the week of July 12-18 as more capacity entered the market, even as diesel prices climbed alongside the broader crude oil rally.